On December 9, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced that a long-delayed Fall Economic Statement was going to be released on December 16. With an election looming—many observers are predicting one in the spring—this document will be something of a campaign document for the governing Liberals. What should Canadians expect from the mini-budget?
If the federal government was ambitious—and, probably, smarter about its possibilities for political survival—it would consider substantial policy changes that would make a difference for Canadians struggling with the very high cost of living, in a context of heightened polarization and concern for our collective future on the planet.
The federal government has the capacity to tackle big problems. Here are some big ideas that could make a difference.
Bring down grocery prices
Grocery prices have been a consistent sore spot for Canadians over the past few years—with 25 per cent price increases since 2020. Canadians’ daily interactions with grocery stores make them a highly visible symbol of inflation profiteering—particularly as grocery conglomerate CEOs give themselves big bonuses due to increased profits.
“All levels of government have treated them with kid gloves for some reason, despite Canadians’ anger,” says David Macdonald, senior economist at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.
“Let’s change that in a bold way,” he says. “Let’s take 100 staples, from cheese to bread to bacon to spaghetti and set the prices. The set price should be the price in 2020, plus two per cent per year since then—not the 25 per cent increase we saw on food prices in general.”
Mandating grocers to include one item per category, such as a house-brand loaf of bread, would provide a real alternative for Canadians struggling with increased prices, Macdonald says—much more so than a temporary GST rebate, as is likely to be the government’s real program in that regard.
High speed rail and urban transit
The promise to build a high-speed rail system in the Quebec City – Windsor Corridor—where the majority of the Canadian population lives—has been subject to seemingly endless study, consultation, and preparation. Now, though, the federal government seems like they may actually have a detailed plan for the Quebec City – Toronto zone, according to early leaks to the media. Whether resources are dedicated towards the network’s construction in the Fall Economic Statement will be a key test of how real the promises are.
“This is big and exciting news,” says Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood, senior researcher at the CCPA. “We need intercity transit options that are fast and reliable enough to supplant short-haul flights and car trips.”
For Mertins-Kirkwood, high speed rail represents the type of climate policy that the government needs to be striving towards—“tangible climate policies with obvious public benefits to win broad political support for decarbonization.”
“We shouldn’t stop at high speed rail. The federal government should also seriously consider making public transit free across the country,” he says. “Municipalities are starved for operational funding for transit, which has forced many operators to hike fares and cut services. A big influx of federal funding can reverse the death spiral.”
The feds have not signalled any intention to implement a free transit program in the Fall Economic Statement, but Mertins-Kirkwood says that it would pay big social dividends.
“Both intracity and intercity transit come with hefty price tags, but these are smart investments that will reduce emissions, save people money and spur economic growth for many decades to come.”
Reform Employment Insurance
The jobless rate has been on a steady rise over the past year, and the Fall Economic Statement should be an opportunity to do something about it. The federal government could address both poverty and the climate with one reform—on Employment Insurance (EI), says CCPA senior researcher Katherine Scott.
“We need an EI program that does a better job for all workers in the face of great labour market change,” Scott says. “And is better positioned for climate change and disaster preparedness, be it floods, fires or pandemics.”
Scott points to the CCPA’s 2025 Alternative Federal Budget chapter on EI as a roadmap—standardize eligibility requirements at 360 hours, increase the benefit rate to two-thirds of normal earnings, and implement a minimum benefit floor of $450 per week, to start. She also proposes the creation of a “disaster EI” program in which requirements would be relaxed in disaster zones in order to help victims stay afloat.
“A more effective EI system is within our reach,” she says—the government just needs to start reaching.
An actual renters’ bill of rights
Housing groups had long been demanding things like country-wide rent controls and standardized protections against displacement. Last spring, the federal government announced its intention to draw up a “renters’ bill of rights.” Would this be it? Tenant organizations across the country waited to see, and last month the feds released their first document outlining what will be in the program.
“The Blueprint of a Renters’ Bill of Rights released last month has no actionable items,” says Ricardo Tranjan, political economist at the CCPA. “It simply calls on provinces to do a better job at protecting tenant rights.”
The Renters’ Bill of Rights is “the latest unfulfilled promise in housing,” Tranjan says. He cites the Federation of Metro Tenants Associations (FMTA) in Toronto, who said that “while we weren’t expecting much, the Blueprint of a Renter’s Bill of Rights…still managed to disappoint.”
If this government were serious about protecting tenants and addressing the affordability crisis in housing, then it would include new housing market regulations in the fall economic statement. “It’s late, but not too late, to enact legislation to concretely and directly protect tenants,” he says.
Sanctions on Israel
International pressure continues to grow on Israel and the countries that give it diplomatic cover. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant for crimes against humanity. Amnesty International has recently release a comprehensive report that unambiguously accuses Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians.
Canada has clearly defined legal responsibilities in this context, says Stuart Trew, a senior researcher at the CCPA who focuses on trade. Trew says that in the fall economic statement, “maximum pressure must be brought against the state of Israel to end its illegal campaign of genocide and collective punishment against the Palestinian people.”
“Minister Chrystia Freeland should use the fall economic statement to announce an immediate, comprehensive and demonstrable embargo on all arms exports to and imports from Israel, as demanded by hundreds of civil society organizations in Canada,” Trew says.
“The minister should further announce that Canada is suspending its free trade deal with Israel, as recommended in the 2025 Alternative Federal Budget,” he says. “Doing so would put pressure on Israel to end its current illegal military aggression, while also bringing Canada in line with international obligations to treat Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories as separate entities, which our free trade agreement currently does not do.”
The federal government has given no inclination that they intend to implement such measures, despite their legal obligations. Whether Israel is even mentioned at all in the statement will be something to watch.
Gender equality fund
Gender-based violence continues to spiral in Canada, a trend that has worsened since the pandemic. The federal government has long attempted to present itself as one which takes the issue of gender equality seriously, and if it wants to continue doing so, then the Fall Economic Statement is an opportunity to do so.
“Gender justice cannot be achieved in Canada without the work of women’s and gender justice organizations to address root causes, advocate for systemic change, and meet community needs,” says Katherine Scott. “Too many of these organizations still do not have core operational funds and reserves to make it through ordinary operations, much less during tough times.”
“A Gender Justice Sustainability Fund,” she says, “initially funded by government but independently managed by civil society, would help address the ongoing funding crisis by providing the flexible, predictable, long term operational funding needed for a thriving sector. It would also protect progress and serve as a bulwark against anti-feminist, far-right movements intent on turning back the clock.”
Re-funding universities
As youth unemployment reaches the highest point since 2012 at 14.2 per cent, the federal government should be taking immediate action to bring down costs for young people, says Erika Shaker, director of the CCPA’s national office. That means, she says, more action on universities, which are some of the largest expenses for young people.
“It’s time for a bold federal strategy that commits to an upfront investment in post-secondary education to ensure both accessibility and affordability for students,” Shaker says. This should include “immediately rolling back fees, implementing a robust system of needs-based grants to address structural inequities and additional costs, and initiating a comprehensive debt forgiveness program.”
While the feds have not signaled any movement on student issues since the long-overdue move to remove interest on student loans last year, “these measures would go a long way towards removing the millstone from around the necks of far too many students and graduates,” Shaker says.
A wishlist and a reality
Whether any of these measures, or versions of them, actually end up in the Fall Economic Statement on Monday is up to the government. Factions within the ruling Liberals are pushing towards greater austerity, while their reliance on the other parties means that they can’t go all-out on cuts.
The government is gearing up into election mode, and all parties are preparing the terrain for the campaign that could begin within a few short months. This document could well be the final budget-like plan that the government puts out. What will they do with it?
We’ll see on Monday.
