COP29 was a missed opportunity in escalating climate crisis

The COP29 Climate Summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, wrapped up last weekend. COP or Conference of the Parties, brings together countries which have ratified the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the parent treaty to the 2015 Paris agreement 

It comes at a time when our planet is experiencing record temperatures, floods, droughts, disappearing forests, collapsing ice sheets, rising sea levels, death and disease. Developing countries endure the worst consequences despite contributing the least to climate-warming emissions. 

Unlike the World Health Organization summits, where tobacco lobbyists are banned from attending, 2000 fossil fuel lobbyists and dozens of PR consultants were registered at COP29.  Their goal was to shape Conference outcomes in their favour. The Canadian Pathways Alliance, which represents oil sands companies, and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, were among them. 

Climate finance for developing countries 

Developed countries agreed to boost their commitment to provide public finance to developing countries to $300 billion per year by 2035 to help them adapt to climate threats, help them pay for loss and damage and mitigate emissions. Canada tripled its  public climate finance commitment, consistent with the overall pledge. The agreement also included a much larger though vague and unenforceable goal of raising $1.3 trillion by 2035, largely through private investment. 

Developing countries have overwhelmingly called the COP29 final agreement an abject failure in meeting their needs.

Prime Minister Trudeau, along with 25 heads of state, signed the COP29 High Ambition Coalition Leaders press statement which urged wealthy countries to increase their collective finance goal for the poorest and most vulnerable countries, and stressed the critical importance of grant-based and concessional finance.  The Coalition also urged the necessity to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, to achieve a tripling of renewables, to reduce the trillions in subsidies that currently support fossil fuels. 

While this makes for a feel-good story, Trudeau’s commitment is at odds with his government’s climate record. The federal government’s  financial support for the oil and gas industry was at least $65 billion. It is spending nearly three times more support to fossil fuels than renewables. Canada has one of the largest proportions of loans in its climate finance commitments. 

GHG Emissions Reduction Targets 

Developed countries’ emissions reduction targets have greatly underperformed in terms of what is needed to reach their Paris Agreement commitments to prevent the global temperature from rising above 1.5 C by 2050. Unfortunately, developed country emissions reduction targets were not discussed at the Conference. Developed countries were not required to table their 2035 emissions reduction targets until early 2025, ahead of the next COP in Brazil. 

In advance of COP29, Prime Minister Trudeau stated that Canada is on a solid path towards its 2030 emissions reductions targets. This was contradicted by a November 2024 report from Canada’s Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development, which found Canada’s emissions have declined by just 7.1 per cent since 2005, far from its target of reducing emissions by 40 per cent  by 2030. .A federal advisory body is calling on the government to increase its ambition and reduce emissions by 55 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035.

Even more disturbing, emissions created by Canada’s fossil fuels exports have risen 58 per cent from 2012 to 2023.

Transition away from fossil fuels

At last year’s Conference, COP 28, countries agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels.” This was the first-time since the first COP meeting in 1995 that fossil fuels were identified as the primary cause of climate heating.  Led by Saudi Arabia, the COP 29 final statement eliminated wording stating the need to “transition from fossil fuels,” and “make polluters pay.”

Canada’s record transitioning from fossil fuels It is also at odds with the High Ambition Coalition statement signed by the Prime Minister.

Canada is the world’s the fourth largest oil producing country, and sixth largest producer of natural gas.  Roughly a quarter of Canada’s exports are fossil fuels.  Canada’s petroleum production continues to rise. The  Alberta energy regulator projects steady growth in oil sands production and emissions going forward to 2033. 

Five wealthy countries including Canada accounted for 56 per cent of oil and gas licenses issued worldwide since 2000. 

Canadian banks are among the worst financiers of fossil fuels globally. The federal government has thus far not aligned Canada’s financial institutions with Canada’s climate commitments. 

Given the obstruction by the fossil fuels lobby and authoritarian petrostates to the Conference outcome, many are calling for change in the structure of COP conferences going forward.  An open letter of former leaders and climate experts stated that, though essential,. “Its current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale, which is essential to ensure a safe climate landing for humanity…” Signatories note that however difficult such reform is, abandoning COP would make the prospects of addressing the climate crisis impossible.

What about Canada’s performance? No word on its plan to reduce emissions, nor its plan to transition away from fossil fuels production and utilization. No plan to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. Disappointing to say the least at a time when the stakes could not be higher.

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