Donald Trump had barely settled into the White House when his victory sent a wave of anxiety through Canadian politicians, business leaders, and citizens. Concerns quickly emerged about a potential trade war between the two North American neighbors and a surge in immigration. How will stricter US immigration policies impact Canada?
As during Trump’s first term, the number of immigrants and refugees crossing into Canada from the U.S. will likely rise, although it may take on a different form this time due to the expansion of the Safe Third Country Agreement. Experts, including Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, warn that Canada lacks a clear strategy to accept immigrants and refugees.
Speaking at an immigration policy seminar on January 16, Bricker stressed that while the challenge is real, the right policies could turn it into an opportunity.
The Omatsu Files
This article is part of The Omatsu Files, a running column written in memory of Rick Omatsu, who was born in 1939 in Vancouver, on the cusp of WWII, which would change his life—a life that was sadly marked by racism. As a Japanese Canadian, in 1942, Rick was sent to the B.C. interior. After the war, the family was forced by the government to leave the province. The family relocated to Hamilton, Ontario, where Rick remained until his passing at age 82. The Omatsu Files is a space dedicated to the voices of young researchers from equity-deserving backgrounds who are focusing on issues of equity, diversity, inclusion, and anti-racism.
Experts and academics who have studied immigration for decades agree. They argue that as the U.S. tightens its immigration policies, Canada could attract newcomers to help address its aging population and strengthen its economy, making it less dependent on its southern neighbor. Canada could turn this challenge into an opportunity by attracting more immigrants, which would not only strengthen its labour market but also help counteract the economic impact of U.S. trade restrictions.
Even before Trump’s return to the White House and imposing new tariffs on Canada and Mexico, some Canadian experts were already calling for such a strategy. In his 2017 book, Maximum Canada: Why 35 Million Canadians Are Not Enough, Doug Saunders argued that Canada should triple its population to 100 million people as an explicit and planned nation-building effort. As Canada’s relationship with the United States deteriorates, such a plan could also help the country to secure its independence and economic resilience.
Trump’s immigration war
In 2018, Canada faced an immigration wave unlike anything in its recent history. Trump’s strict policies, such as deporting immigrants and separating children from their parents, pushed more people north. That year, Canada resettled 28,100 refugees, more than any other country, including the United States.
Andy Rodriguez, a regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant in Ottawa, believes Canada must prepare for a similar situation.
Professor Chedly Belkhodja, co-director at Concordia University’s School of Community and Public Affairs, agrees. Having studied Roxham Road, Quebec’s main unofficial crossing point, he believes a repeat is possible. But he also highlights that Canada has changed.
“At that time, Canada had a different context,” he explains. “The Liberal government was firmly in power, and the prime minister portrayed Canada as a welcoming nation. We were prioritising diversity. Now, the focus has shifted to border security and control.”
Both Rodriguez and Belkhodja point out that even before Trump’s presidency, Canada had begun tightening immigration policies. The government plans to reduce permanent resident admissions by 21 per cent in 2025, with further cuts in the years that follow.
The new immigration targets are expected to slow Canada’s population growth, leading to 1.4 million fewer residents by 2027. A new Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) report found that this decline would result in 1.3 billion fewer hours worked and lower nominal GDP by an average of $37 billion over the next three years. This means less economic activity, a smaller tax base, and potential impacts on public services and job opportunities for Canadians.
In the context of a trade war with the United States, Canada can’t afford to take these unnecessary economic hits. The federal government needs an explicit growth strategy that is based on building up its own domestic capacity—and immigration is a key way of doing so, regardless of which way the political winds are blowing.
Immigrants make up nearly a third of all business owners with paid staff. Between 2016 and 2021, more than 40 per cent of newcomers to the health care sector took on essential roles in nursing. In 2022 alone, international students and their visiting families contributed $37.3 billion to the economy.
Syed Ather Hussain Akbari, chair of Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity, explains that Canada has long recognized the economic value of immigration, particularly as a response to its aging population.
“As people retire and the labor force shrinks, economic growth slows,” he says. “One way to address this is through incentives to increase fertility rates, but that hasn’t worked in Western economies. The other tool is immigration.”
According to Akbari, boosting immigration has been Canada’s most effective solution for strengthening its labour market and attracting investment. “Over the past 20 years, Canada has increased immigration inflows because it understands that a shrinking workforce creates challenges. Immigration is the key to filling those gaps.”
With immigration already playing a crucial role in Canada’s economy, Trump’s restrictive policies could open new opportunities for the country.
“Trump could be a big opportunity for Canada,” says Rodriguez. “If he doesn’t want people who are willing to work, those with talent, or individuals with economic strength, Canada should create a path for them.”
He says he has recently worked with clients, immigrant business owners in the US, who are now looking to move to Canada because of Trump’s immigration policies.
According to Rodriguez, welcoming international students, business owners, temporary workers, and entrepreneurs could offset some of the economic losses caused by Trump’s tariffs. By doing so, Canada could boost its economic resilience while protecting itself from the impact of U.S-imposed tariffs.
Permanent instead of temporary solutions
Rodriguez proposes Canada introduce new immigration programs that attract workers and entrepreneurs. He stresses that these new Canadians should be permanently integrated into the economy in order to fully realize the benefits of immigration.
“Immigration creates the producers and consumers of the future. Its impact on the economy is huge. For example, if international students find a path to permanent residency, they will become long-term economic contributors,” he said.
Other immigration experts also emphasize the need to create pathways for temporary residents and work permit holders to gain permanent status. They argue it would allow Canada to fully benefit from the talent and potential of immigrants already in the country.
Belkhodja acknowledges the challenges of immigration policy but believes Canadian policymakers must be “innovative” and develop “flexible policies” that adapt to the country’s changing needs. He also highlights that making the most of immigrant talent requires proper investment.
“It’s not just about policy, it’s also about resources,” he explains.
“Settlement programs need funding to offer strong integration support. Canada has built a solid settlement model, but as immigration grows, the system must remain agile and responsive to different immigration pathways. Providing services to immigrants helps them feel part of society, which is key to long-term integration.”
Despite the ongoing need for immigrant labor, talent, and financial capital, public attitudes toward immigration in Canada have shifted. In recent years, anti-immigrant policies have gained more support.
Akbari says that part of the problem lies in how politicians approach the issue and communicate with the public. “They need to explain why they increased immigration in the first place clearly; because the country needed these people and their positive economic impact.”
Experts like Akbari warn that misleading narratives about immigrants, including unproven claims that they take jobs from Canadians, have fueled negative perceptions.
Yet, despite shifting rhetoric and policy changes across North America, Akbari, who has studied immigration to Canada for over three decades, believes a policy reversal is inevitable. Canada’s long-term economic stability, specially in the face of trade tensions with the U.S. depends on immigration.
“This country needs more people,” he says. “No matter what politicians say now, in three or four years, they will have to increase immigration inflow again.”
