Previously published in the Winnipeg Free Press Feb 28, 2025.
The upcoming Manitoba budget should prepare for the economic uncertainty created by U.S. tariffs by building resilience in the local economy and upholding Manitoba’s values of care for each other and the land. The Manitoba government already has a head start by committing to ending chronic homelessness, improving healthcare staffing and the Affordable Energy Plan.
But amid the recent Trumpian chaos, Manitoba must take bold action to insulate our province from emerging risks.
The playing field has changed as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats create uncertainty intended to compel manufacturing companies and jobs to relocate from Canada to the U.S.
The assumption that free trade would be the road to economic growth has been disproven as the American government protects their interests above others.
The silver lining here? This is an opportunity to accelerate a Manitoba-made, clean and green economy to preserve our ways of life — our health, economic prosperity, and our natural world.
The 2025/26 Manitoba budget should build resilience so that Manitoba can prepare for these changes. The Manitoba government’s role in this is to do more than advocate for the needs of local businesses and corporations. The Manitoba government must lead the creation of a resilient local economy and province.
This starts by helping those currently suffering, which will, in turn, help our local economy. In Manitoba, 56,642 people rely wholly on frozen provincial welfare rates and struggle to survive. 171,072 more Manitobans are working for less than a living wage in Manitoba. If the incomes of these two groups were raised, the money they would spend in the local economy on food and other necessities would stimulate Manitoba’s GDP from the bottom up.
The recently launched Manitoba “buy local” campaign relies on the logic that consumers, not employers, create jobs. Manitoba must raise the wage and income floor to help low-paid consumers buy more. This is a win-win-win: it helps low-income people and local businesses while acting on the impacts of poverty on the provincial health-care and justice systems.
Improving the incomes of the lowest-wage people also strengthens the social safety net in the unfortunate case of more Manitobans losing their jobs.
Secondly, Manitoba must address the infrastructure deficit while preparing for climate change. The Association of Manitoba Municipalities estimates Manitoba’s infrastructure deficit to be over $11 billion — and this is just what’s required to fix existing infrastructure, not to build new.
Fixing public roads, transit, housing, and recreation facilities is an opportunity to create decent local jobs and improve quality of life.
A priority in local infrastructure is acting quickly to electrify Manitoba’s building heating, transit, and transportation systems. This will keep the money spent on energy in Manitoba rather than buying from big oil and gas companies from out of province.
Manitobans must not forget last year’s shutdown of Manitoba’s main gasoline, diesel and jet fuel line for three months. If this had not been caught, there could have been a massive oil spill, and Manitobans left scrambling for fuel.
The Manitoba government needs a long-term plan to get us off these dirty fossil fuels and onto Manitoba-generated electricity, which is more reliable and efficient than polluting, imported energy. The Manitoba Affordable Energy Plan, which includes wind and solar, is a start, but Manitoba needs to commit investment dollars and build on this plan to cut fossil fuel use by half by 2030 and to net zero by 2050.
This requires public investment to reskill workers and provide education, training and apprenticeships to meet the demand for green jobs of tomorrow. Manitoba is well positioned to build on green technology and be ready to share this in the global green energy race.
Supporting local also means public investment in the care economy: health care, child care and education. All of these are important to small businesses and social enterprises for a healthy, educated workforce so they may develop and thrive.
As an agrarian economy, Manitoba must do more to support local food and locally owned agriculture to protect against the tariff threat. Thanks to the new universal school nutrition program, there’s an opportunity to drive this via more local, healthy food to be procured for children to enable health and learning.
To ensure tax fairness and sufficient revenues for investment in local economic development, Manitoba should look closely at who has gained or lost purchasing power over the last few years of high inflation. The Parliamentary Budget Office found the top 60 per cent of households across Canada have more disposable income today than in 2019, while the bottom 40 per cent are further underwater due to inflation.
In Manitoba, top earners also received massive tax cuts due to changes in education property and income taxes. Manitoba’s tax revenues range from the lowest to average amongst provinces in terms of revenue relative to the size of our economy. There is space to modestly and progressively increase tax rates for those whose incomes have increased significantly.
The large deficit in Manitoba and the unprecedented uncertainty in the U.S. means Manitoba must extend the timeline to return the budget to balance. The series of tax cuts introduced since 2016 have created a structural deficit. Faced with U.S. threats, making investments that build resilience and maintain growth will provide greater benefits than balancing the budget in two years.
The Manitoba budget should look at what the Manitoba government can do: build a strong social safety net and provide opportunities for social mobility while building the local, green economy and resilience. Manitoba must rise to this challenge and help each other now and for generations to come.
