This report by veteran earth scientist David Hughes analyzes the state of the oil and gas sector in Canada and finds that while production is increasing, jobs and revenues paid to government are decreasing.
The report finds the oil and gas sector alone will cause Canada to fail to meet its Paris Agreement target of a 40 per cent reduction by 2030, set by Prime Minister Trudeau at President Biden’s recent climate summit Hughes finds the sector will also cause Canada to miss its “net zero” target by 2050 as laid out in Bill C-12. It details how the sector no longer contributes like it once did to government revenues in Canada, and jobs in the sector are down by more than 50,000 from their 2014 peak and are unlikely to return—even with production at record highs.
The report concludes that continuing on the country’s current path for the oil and gas sector makes meeting Canada’s emissions-reduction targets impossible. It recommends a stark change in direction to meet the targets, including a rethink of oil and gas exports and the development of a plan for the future that includes a just transition for workers. It also finds that planned expansions of the TMX and Line 3 pipelines are not needed because Canada already has enough pipeline capacity to transport the amount of oil the Canada Energy Regulator is projecting for export through 2050.
Canada’s Carbon Conundrum and the Difficult Path Forward